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Okay. So what if most North Carolina political experts disagree with me? They say that a primary runoff like the upcoming one in the race for the North Carolina Democratic nomination will be detrimental to the eventual winner.
They point out that the runoff between Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham forces both candidates to spend money against each other while their eventual Republican opponent, Senator Richard Burr, is raising more funds to use in the fall.
And, they say, the time Marshall and Cunningham fight each other could be better used to organize and prepare for the November general election.
They remind us that a hard-fought, bitter primary runoff can leave negative impressions about both candidates. The winner might be burdened with the unfavorable impressions created by the loser’s hard-hitting ads.
Finally, they argue that these “second primaries” are a waste of everybody’s time and effort since so few voters show up at the polls.
Good points.
Here is the other side.
To have any chance of winning in November, the Democrats need a jump-start of enthusiasm for their nominee. She or he will stand a better chance of getting that kind of spirit when the nominee is a clear winner over another strong candidate. It did not happen in the first primary. But it can happen in the June runoff. At the very least the winner will move into the fall election having won more than 50 percent of the vote. Right now both candidates have the burden of having more that 50 percent of the primary voters go against them.
More important, perhaps, the runoff gives both candidates the opportunity to grab the spotlight in ways that were not open during the days leading up to the May primary. The field was too crowded. Without a second primary, the nominee would be stuck with only the very hazy impressions generated so far.
The extra weeks between the primary and the runoff give both candidates more time on the political center stage to refine and drive home a message and build name recognition and credibility with the public. The free publicity and public contact during the next few weeks can be positive factors in the fall election – and worth hundreds of thousands of dollars.
In the summer months before a November campaign, it is almost impossible to develop the mood of immediacy that a candidate needs to prepare for the fall by expanding the organization, by recruiting new supporters, assigning tasks, and building teams across the state. A primary runoff can put a candidate’s statewide organization to work at a time when it would otherwise be waiting and resting. The contest forces the candidate and his or her organization to push those organizational efforts.
Practice makes politicians better speakers, better interviewees, and better fundraisers. As they are required to explain, and as they learn to listen on the campaign trail, they improve as candidates.
If you think of politicians as “actors,” the runoff is a valuable dress rehearsal for the fall campaign. It requires the candidate to go over his or her message and practice the lines and the moves, getting better prepared to meet the critical audience that will grade the performance in the fall.
Do you want an example? Maybe you remember the 1990 senate primary contest between Harvey Gantt and Mike Easley. Gantt led Easley in the first primary, but did not quite reach the 40 percent threshold. The runoff gave both candidates more exposure and credibility, giving Gantt and his campaign a jumpstart that helped him mount a very strong effort against Senator Helms.
How about you? Do you agree with the experts – or with me?
D.G. Martin is hosting his final season of UNC-TV’s North Carolina Bookwatch, which airs at 5 p.m. Sundays. His blog and prior programs can be viewed at www.unctv.org/ncbookwatch. This Sunday’s (May 16) guest is Brett Friedlander, author of “Chasing Moonlight.”
